And now for the big one

Right now, the Kenyan cricket team is like the cartoon character Speedy Gonzales, "the fastest mouse in all Mexico." Try as they might, the cats - or in this case, the big lions - South Africa, the West Indies, New Zealand and even Sri Lanka do not seem to know how to handle them. Kenya has gotten away and, at last look, was heading Pool B, and I doubt that even the Kenyans can believe that this is not a dream.

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Many, including me, remember the humiliation that Kenya handed the West Indies in 1996. I nearly died from shock then. I was less shocked when the Kenyans beat Sri Lanka earlier this week, but I am almost sure that the shocks have not yet ceased. Remember, the Kenyans have also still got to play against the West Indies in the league stages.

South Africa should win against Canada, but if they lose to Sri Lanka, they are out of the tournament. The West Indies must beat Kenya - and before that, Sri Lanka - to survive. Winning both is going to be tough, but it is eminently possible. If Kenya beat either Bangladesh or the West Indies, they are home and dry into the Super Six, while New Zealand have to murder Canada to improve their net run rate and advance. Sri Lanka will have the toughest task towards the end of the preliminaries, needing to beat at least one of - and perhaps both - the West Indies and South Africa to survive. Talk about the "Group of Death" - this is it!

Comparing and contrasting the West Indies and Sri Lanka for their crucial encounter on Friday is a brutal task. Sri Lanka bowled out Canada for 36, but the same Canadians made 202 against the West Indies, so in the analysis, West Indies 0, Sri Lanka 1. The West Indies beat South Africa but lost to New Zealand, while Sri Lanka beat New Zealand. Final analysis - West Indies 0.5, Sri Lanka 1.5. On recent form, Sri Lanka seem to be well above the West Indies with 12 points and a net run-rate of 1.73 as compared to 10 points and a net run rate of 1.03.

Yet so much for Sri Lanka depends on the mood of their captain, Sanath Jayasuriya. Like the afore-mentioned Speedy Gonzales, Jayasuriya inspires his team like no other captain, perhaps with the exception of Sourav Ganguly of India and New Zealand's Steven Fleming. One only has to gauge the mood of Jayasuriya to know how the team will perform.

Jayasuriya enjoys his cricket and, even more, enjoys his captaincy. His batting is normally electric, and if Sri Lanka bats first against the West Indies and he gets off to a flyer, the West Indies will be facing a target of 300 very quickly. When Sri Lanka beat New Zealand, making only 272, their captain made an explosive 120 in only 125 deliveries, including 15 fours that contributed half of his total. He also bowled well and had a useful haul of one for 32 from eight overs.

Hashan Tillekeratne scored well in that game too, getting 81 not out. Fortunately for their opponents, so far neither Kumara Sangakkara nor Mahela Jayawardene have yet come good in this series. Somehow I have the nasty feeling that these two, destructive when they get going, will be aching to take the West Indies to task come Friday, while that old wily veteran, Aravinda de Silva, will play his usual useful role both with bat and ball. Somehow, complacency crept into their performance against Kenya, and Sri Lanka's coach, Dav Whatmore, will not allow that to happen again.

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The bowling star so far for Sri Lanka has been Chaminda Vaas, a vastly improved and still-blossoming left-arm swing bowler. He is the highest wicket-taker of the tournament thus far and, if nothing else, will ensure that the West Indies change their batting line-up, not allowing Wavell Hinds, Chris Gayle, Brian Lara and Shiv Chanderpaul - all left handers - to proceed one after the other to the crease. It is my guess that Ramnaresh Sarwan will be promoted into the top four.

Vaas and Muttiah Muralitharan, along with Jayasuriya, De Silva and the other two fast bowlers, Prabath Nissanka and Dilhara Fernando, form a very useful attack, especially if Vaas performs as he did against Bangladesh, bowling fast, straight and productively.

The West Indies, on the other hand, have some problems. I think that Jayasuriya is a far more adept captain than the West Indian skipper, Carl Hooper; at least the Sri Lankan captain is much more aggressive and inspirational, traits that will probably be essential to win this big game.

As a batsman, Hooper has shown very little so far of his supposed class, and his dismissal against New Zealand was so childish that only Hooper in the present international batting line-ups could have pulled it off. His bowling has only been there or thereabouts, but he will certainly have to do better than he has recently if the West Indies are to tame Sri Lanka.

Chris Gayle and Wavell Hinds will struggle against the marauding Vaas, and it will take the extraordinary skills of Brian Lara - remember his 688 runs against Sri Lanka in three Tests in 2001? - to spur the West Indian batting onward. Chanderpaul, Ricardo Powell and Sarwan will have to bat out of their skins - if the West Indies bat first - for the team to get to 300, but that is what they must do to win. Anything less is a liability, but a win is still very much possible if the West Indian batsmen can cope with Vaas and Murali.

Where the West Indies really struggle is with their bowling. Merv Dillon was a distress to West Indian supporters against Canada, while both Nixon McLean and Corey Collymore could not make up one good fast bowler if the two were combined. Pedro Collins tries, and Vasbert Drakes is certainly the best of the lot, but the bowling struggles, even with the help of Hooper, Hinds and Gayle.

On paper, just off the top of my head, I suggest that Sri Lanka will win the next game. But with all my heart, I hope that the West Indies win. The final three from Group B that enter the Super Six will, in my opinion, be Kenya, the West Indies or Sri Lanka (but not both), South Africa or New Zealand (but not both). But cricket has a way of upsetting all human calculations, and this tournament may see some more upsets yet.