Momentum is over-rated

I’ve always suspected the concept of momentum, one of the staples of press-conference speak, was over-rated. “We’ve got the momentum,” says a captain, moments before losing the toss on a flat one and conceding 350 on the first day. Wrong: you had the momentum, but now the momentum belongs to the other team, who will probably hand it back to you on a silver platter before the series is over.

The IPL has done little to suggest that momentum is anything more than just another of those ideas which dressing rooms use to feel good about themselves. Take last night’s win for Mumbai Indians in Kolkata. The momentum argument dictated they didn’t have a prayer: four defeats in a row; still no Sachin; Harbhajan banned. But they bowled beautifully on a sluggish pitch and, after losing three cheap wickets, were inspired by the bat of Dwayne Bravo. No doubt they’re talking about the semi-finals already.

It’s been the same elsewhere. Kolkata Knight Riders apparently had the momentum after winning their first two games, but have now lost two in a row. Deccan Chargers were being written off as a bunch of costly failures before Adam Gilchrist turned a three-game losing streak into a glorious win against Mumbai on Sunday. And Kings XI Punjab looked down and out after losing their first two matches, since when they have beaten Delhi Daredevils and Mumbai.

Only Chennai Super Kings (four wins out of four) have bucked the trend, although Rajasthan Royals have won three in a row since being thrashed by Delhi on the day two. Which probably means they will lose to Kolkata tomorrow night. So, the momentum belongs to Chennai, does it? Well, yes, except they must play their next match, on Friday, without Matthew Hayden, Mike Hussey and Jacob Oram. The momentum, if it exists at all, has to start almost from scratch.

What of Royal Challengers Bangalore ? In this morning’s Times of India, their wicketkeeper Mark Boucher writes: “The way we see it, there are 14 games to play, and if we win 11 out of 14, we have a great chance of making the semi-finals. Agreed, it sounds like a tall order, but Chennai have won four in a row, so a winnings streak is not impossible to establish.”

Well, maybe. But Boucher of all people should know not to get excited about dear old momentum. Back in 2003, he was part of the South African team that drew a five-Test series 2-2 in England in one of the least momentum-ridden encounters ever. After the drawn first Test , South Africa took the lead at Lord’s, surrendered it at Trent Bridge , reclaimed it at Headingley before finally settling for parity at The Oval.

That was Test cricket, where gentle ebb and flow comes naturally. This is Twenty20, where matches can change course in a couple of overs. If momentum struggles to stand up to scrutiny in a series lasting 25 days, what price does it have in three-hour cricket? And if Bangalore beat Delhi tonight before winning their next nine games as well, I can only apologise.