India eye historic series triumph

Match facts

The Big Picture

One down with two to play, New Zealand have it all to do. So comprehensively were they outplayed in all aspects in Hamilton that a reversal of fortunes is a tall task: their top order was woefully inadequate, the fast bowlers were a distant second to Zaheer Khan, Ishant Sharma and Munaf Patel, and Harbhajan Singh comfortably outperformed Daniel Vettori in the spin department.

The gulf was wide in the first Test, but New Zealand have been putting in the hard yards over the last four days to give themselves the best chance of bridging the gap. What they'll hope for now is to get some early momentum at McLean Park, take the honours in the first two sessions, and hope India feel the pressure. Some quick Indian wickets with the new ball could still swing things their way, but if India survive the early exchanges, it could be another long Test for New Zealand.

MS Dhoni has a superior team on paper, and proved that in the first Test, but India need to guard against complacency. While they've been winning more frequently overseas since 2000, series wins haven't been that easy to come by. The last time they won the first Test of a series outside the subcontinent - against South Africa in 2006-07 - they promptly lost the next two to lose the series. However, Dhoni has plenty of incentive to ensure that this isn't repeated: India haven't won a series in New Zealand since 1967-68, and a victory in Napier will break that dry spell, and also bring up their 100th Test win.

Test form guide

New Zealand - LDDLL
India - WDWWD
India have beaten Australia, England and New Zealand over their last five games, while New Zealand have suffered heavy defeats against Australia and India during this period.

Watch out for ...

Jesse Ryder has shown, over the course of this series, that he can mould his game according to the needs of the team. He was aggression personified in the ODIs, but he showed wonderful temperament and maturity in putting together his first Test hundred in extremely trying circumstances in Hamilton. He has a solid technique, his confidence is sky-high, and the Indians haven't yet figured out how to bowl to him.

Harbhajan Singh picked up his best overseas haul in the previous Test. With him, one good performance usually leads to another. Against an inexperienced New Zealand batting line-up lacking in quality against spin and on a pitch expected to assist slow bowlers, Harbhajan will back himself to take another bagful of wickets.

Team news

Jeetan Patel is likely to come in for the disappointing Kyle Mills, who did his cause no favours with a lacklustre performance in Hamilton - 1 for 119 in 24.2 overs. Moreover, in two previous Tests in Napier, Mills' stats are equally mediocre - none for 128 in 44 overs. New Zealand also need to decide if Daniel Flynn has recovered from the bruising he suffered on his hand in the first Test. He practised despite a swollen hand on the eve of the Test, and a final call will only be taken after a comprehensive fitness Test on Thursday morning. If he fails to make the grade, Jamie How will take his place.

New Zealand (likely): 1 Tim McIntosh, 2 Martin Guptill, 3 Daniell Flynn/Jamie How, 4 Ross Taylor, 5 Jesse Ryder, 6 James Franklin, 7 Brendon McCullum (wk), 8 Daniel Vettori (capt), 9 Jeetan Patel, 10 Iain O'Brien, 11 Chris Martin.

India will almost certainly play the team that won so convincingly in Hamilton. There were question-marks over the third seamer before that game, but Munaf Patel dispelled them emphatically with match figures of 5 for 120.

India (likely): 1 Gautam Gambhir, 2 Virender Sehwag, 3 Rahul Dravid, 4 Sachin Tendulkar, 5 VVS Laxman, 6 Yuvraj Singh, 7 Mahendra Singh Dhoni (capt & wk), 8 Harbhajan Singh, 9 Zaheer Khan, 10 Ishant Sharma, 11 Munaf Patel.

Pitch & conditions

The pitch has come in for plenty of comment in the days leading up to the Test, with reports of a fungal growth forcing the groundsmen to shift the surface. However, Phil Stoyanoff, the chief curator, denied those reports, and predicted a typical Napier track. "There is always a little bit in it in the first session, and then it pans out to be an absolute belter, and has good consistent bounce," Stoyanoff said. "Lot of runs get scored here."

That, coupled with forecasts of sunny weather over the next four days, is good news for India's batsmen, but not so encouraging for New Zealand. Andy Moles, the New Zealand coach, has publicly called for a pitch which offers more help to the fast bowlers, but with the home team looking to play two spinners, that looks highly unlikely.

Stats and trivia

• New Zealand haven't yet won a Test here - in seven games they've lost two and drawn the rest. India's only Test here was in 1990, which they drew.

• The only Indian from the current squad to play a Test here is Sachin Tendulkar, who missed his maiden Test century by 12 runs in 1990.

• Jeetan Patel has taken ten wickets in two Tests at McLean Park, at an average of 29.20. Vettori hasn't been as incisive, averaging 47.75 for his eight wickets at this ground.

• The team batting second hasn't yet won a Test here: both Sri Lanka and England won when batting first.

Quotes

"We need our batsmen to bat 120 overs, we need our bowlers to be consistent for longer, and we need to lift ourselves in the field. It's every part of the game, and if we don't do that we will get the same result as we did in Hamilton."
Vettori spells out what New Zealand need to do in Napier.

"For us the next step is day one of the Test match. As I said a Test match goes on for five days, it's not like it's decided in one day. We have seen sides losing a game after having a brilliant day. It's all about consistently doing well over a period of time."
Dhoni isn't looking too far ahead.